Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Oil Markets
8JUN

Curtis becomes third Republican on AUMF

3 min read
10:46UTC

Utah's John Curtis was named on Saturday 25 April as the third Republican backer of Lisa Murkowski's draft Iran AUMF, which remains unfiled five days from the 1 May deadline.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Four Republicans on record against the war past 60 days, with no AUMF actually filed.

John Curtis, the Republican junior Senator for Utah, was named on Saturday 25 April as the third Republican backer of Lisa Murkowski's draft Iran AUMF, joining Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina 1. AUMF stands for Authorization for Use of Military Force, the legal instrument by which Congress authorises a President to use armed force; the last Iran-specific authorisation predates the current administration. Murkowski is the senior Republican Senator for Alaska and has drafted the text but not filed it.

Counting Rand Paul of Kentucky, who voted to advance the fifth War Powers Resolution on Wednesday 22 April when it failed 46-51 , four Republicans are now publicly willing to vote against The Administration's "winding down" framing. Cloture in the Senate requires 60 votes; a four-Republican bloc is well short of that floor but enough to embarrass The Administration on a procedural vote. Murkowski told Jewish Insider "we've been having some good conversations, and we're going to continue them" 2.

The AUMF has not been formally introduced; there is no committee referral and no markup date. Five days separate today from the 1 May statutory War Powers deadline. If Murkowski had wanted floor action before that clock ran out, she would have moved the text by now. The most parsimonious reading is that the sponsor expects the deadline to pass without action and is positioning Republican senators for the post-deadline politics. The opposite reading is that the bloc is being assembled in case Trump signs an AUMF himself rather than face an unauthorised war past 1 May. Either reading requires signed paper to test, and there is none.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

An AUMF is a law Congress passes to formally authorise the President to use military force. The US has been at war with Iran for 57 days without Congress passing one. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has been drafting an AUMF, and three other Republican senators have now publicly said they support it. But she has not yet formally submitted the bill to Congress for a vote. This matters because until she files it, Senate leaders can't block it from reaching the floor, but it also cannot actually pass. The War Powers Act gives Congress 60 days to either authorise or end a military engagement; that clock runs out on 1 May.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Once **Murkowski** files the AUMF text, Senate leadership can route it to the Armed Services Committee and control the markup calendar, effectively bottling the bill indefinitely. An unfiled bill cannot be markup-blocked.

The five-day gap to the 1 May WPR deadline is therefore a deliberate strategic hold. Murkowski is accumulating public co-sponsors while preserving the option to file after the deadline passes, when the constitutional stakes are higher and Republican moderates face more pressure to commit to a position on an ongoing war that has no authorisation.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    If Murkowski files the AUMF after 1 May, she converts the debate from 'war powers compliance' to 'congressional authorisation for an ongoing war', a more politically durable frame for Republican moderates to stand on.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Four Republicans willing to publicly oppose the administration's framing is the largest visible crack in Senate Republican unity on the Iran war, but it is still 56 votes short of cloture, meaning no floor action is possible without Democratic co-operation that has not been organised.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    An AUMF that passes and contains geographic or temporal limits on the use of force would be the first signed executive constraint on the Iran war and would bind CENTCOM's rules of engagement in a way no Truth Social post can.

    Short term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #80 · Three carriers, zero instruments

Jewish Insider· 26 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers had trimmed WTI net long positioning into July's rally, doubting the Hormuz premium would hold without freight or war-risk confirmation, and the crude stock build reported for the week to 17 July gives that scepticism a fundamentals basis. The 25 July CFTC data will show whether Brent's move above $100 changed their calculus.
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Singapore's distillate holders kept retaining middle-distillate barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrowed further this week, a pattern that sharpened as Fujairah light distillates hit a record low. Cargoes are being held rather than released west into the tightening Mediterranean market.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria secured the removal of Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov and Patriarch Kirill from the 21st package, with President Rumen Radev calling a personal listing 'shooting ourselves in the foot'. Sofia is protecting its position in Lukoil's EUR 3bn compensation claim over the 2023 Neftohim Burgas nationalisation.
Russia
Russia
Russia loses the roughly $14 a barrel of legal headroom the price-cap formula would have released toward $58, even as Urals continues trading below Moscow's $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround that lets sanctioned crude clear above $44 in practice remains untouched by the freeze itself.
European Union
European Union
The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, freezing the $44 Russia oil cap for 12 months rather than letting the formula drift it toward $58, and listed shadow-fleet support vessels for the first time. The package cleared only after three failed Coreper votes.
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
War-risk syndicates lifted southern Red Sea hull premiums 150% to about 0.75% of hull value after the 20 July blockade declaration, still a seventh of the roughly 5% Hormuz band. Underwriters reset on realised loss, not declared threat, so the 23 July Encelia and Layla strikes set up the next re-mark.