Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is the regional central bank serving the Sixth Federal Reserve District, covering Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and parts of three neighbouring states. One of twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, it conducts applied economic research, supervises financial institutions within its district, and contributes analysis to national monetary policy deliberations. Its CFO Survey — a quarterly poll of senior financial officers across the Southeast — has become a leading indicator of business investment and employment intentions. A 2026 CFO Survey of 750 senior executives projected AI-attributed job cuts to total approximately 502,000 roles in 2026, roughly nine times the 2025 level.

The Atlanta Fed publishes research across macroeconomics, labour markets, and financial stability. Its labour market studies — particularly the Wage Growth Tracker and the Jobs Calculator — are used by investors, policymakers, and economists to assess employment trends in real time. The 502,000 AI-displacement projection is notable because it comes from CFOs rather than analysts: these are the decision-makers with direct knowledge of their own planned workforce actions. The figure is specifically AI-attributed, not general workforce reduction, making it qualitatively different from broader recession-era forecasts.

The Atlanta Fed's projection sits in stark tension with the headline March 2026 payrolls figure of +178,000, which was seen as evidence of labour market resilience. The CFO survey implies that the displacement acceleration has not yet fully appeared in BLS data — either because the cuts are being executed gradually, or because the workforce segments being displaced (tech, back-office, entry-level knowledge work) are not reflected in the sectors currently adding jobs (health care, construction). The 502,000 figure, if realised, would represent the largest single-year AI-specific displacement on record.