AtlasIntel
Brazil-based polling firm; final Hungary poll showed Tisza at 52.1% versus Fidesz 39.3%, a narrower 12.8-point gap.
Last refreshed: 11 April 2026
With Median showing 25 points and AtlasIntel showing 12.8, which methodology better captures rural Hungarian support for Fidesz?
Latest on AtlasIntel
- What is AtlasIntel and how accurate are its European polls?
- AtlasIntel is a Brazilian polling firm founded in 2018 using digital and social media sampling. Its final Hungary poll showed Tisza leading Fidesz 52.1% to 39.3%, a narrower margin than Median's 25-point gap.
- Why do different polls show different gaps in the Hungary 2026 election?
- Median showed Tisza ahead by 25 points; AtlasIntel showed 12.8 points. The difference reflects methodological variation: telephone polling (Median) versus digital panel sampling (AtlasIntel) produces different demographic weightings, especially for rural Fidesz support.Source: Median/AtlasIntel
Background
AtlasIntel is a Brazil-based polling and analytics firm that has expanded into Central and Eastern European election surveying. Its final pre-election poll for the 12 April 2026 Hungarian election showed Péter Magyar's Tisza at 52.1% versus Viktor Orbán's Fidesz at 39.3%, a 12.8-point gap. The Medián figure of 25 points and AtlasIntel's 12.8 points framed the range of outcomes being discussed going into election day.
AtlasIntel was founded in 2018 in Brazil and has built a reputation for unconventional polling methods including online panels and social media-based sampling, which produce different demographic weightings compared to traditional telephone polls. Its entry into European electoral polling is relatively recent.
The divergence between AtlasIntel's 12.8-point gap and Medián's 25-point margin reflects methodological differences rather than factual disagreement: both showed a Tisza lead. The gap between the two firms is relevant because a 12.8-point lead, while substantial, would leave more room for polling error than a 25-point lead, particularly in a Hungarian electorate where voter registration patterns and rural-urban splits can complicate online panel sampling.